CTS lunch seminar October 7, 11.30

Disa Thureson

Published Sep 22, 2014

HOW LARGE LOSSES DOES UNCERTAINTY IN COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS IMPLY?

Welcome to the CTS Lunch Seminar Series

Disa Thureson will present

HOW LARGE LOSSES DOES UNCERTAINTY IN COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS IMPLY?

Authors
Disa Thureson and Jonas Eliasson

Abstract
In social decision making, such as infrastructure investment decision, cost-benefit analysis (CBA)
is frequently used to compare costs and benefits of different projects in a systematic manner.
Such CBA:s builds on prognoses of likely future scenarios, with and without, each projects in
question, which of course is subject to large uncertainties. Also valuations of costs and benefits
are subject to uncertainties. In this study the aim is to investigate to what extent the CBA
improves decision making when some of these uncertainties are taken into account, using a
simulation based approach based on real data. Data on infrastructure investment CBA:s from
Sweden and Norway are used to perform the analyses. Results indicate that, in line with previous
literature, CBA is a rather robust tool and considerably increase quality of decision making
compared to a random selection mechanism, even when high levels of uncertainty are
considered.

Please confirm your attendance by October 3rd. No response is required for decline.

Lunch is served from 11:20, October 7th 2014, CTS Teknikringen 10, room Wardrop/Nash

Page responsible:Gunilla Appelgren
Belongs to: Centrum för transportstudier (CTS)
Last changed: Sep 22, 2014