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Forecasting car demand by segment

Project Number: 233

Project Leader: Shiva Habibi

Start Date: 2012-09-01

End Date: 2012-10-31

In this paper we develop a car type demand forecasting model. When implementing a policy targeted towards car type, it is important to forecast both the medium and long term impacts on the car fleet compositions. But the short term impact is also important to forecast accurately. For instance, decision-makers may have preferences for early impact, and there are also fiscal reasons why it is important to forecast short term impact accurately. Using car register data, we develop a car type demand model with the objective of being able to forecast market demand of cars in a given segment. We explore how data can be exploited using validation methods to improve the accuracy of the forecast.

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