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Spatial, Temporal and Size Distribution of Passenger Train

Project Number: 236

Project Leader: Niclas Krüger

Start Date: 2012-01-01

End Date: 2012-06-30

Research Question In this project we would like to study the size and structure of the problem of passenger trains not arriving according to schedule. More specific, we aim to investigate the distribution of passenger train delays using an extensive database provided by The Swedish Transport Administration (Trafikverket). The results have potential major impact for delay measurement and valuation in CBA and rail management. We expect that the delay data is plagued by low probability high impact events, so that the probability distribution is characterized by thick tails. In case that this is true, calculations of means and standard deviations cannot adequately describe the problem with delays. Hence, the analysis will be based on percentiles (for example, the 20 percent largest delays amount for x percent of total delay hours). Also conditional probabilities for delays are important to analyze in order to understand the transmissions of delays in the r

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